Coach Storm’s 2010
State Tourney Picks
Written by Tom Hellen
Somerville,
MA -- February 23, 2010
Division 1 North
Final Four – Peabody vs.
Central Catholic and Andover
vs. Westford
Semifinals – Central
Catholic vs. Andover
Winner – Andover
Possible Surprise Team – Lowell…I know I picked Revere
but mainly because of the potential home crowd factor and it being the biggest
game in Revere
in many moons. If Lowell gets by Revere they could surprise Peabody also. They play in the tough
MVC and 5 of their losses went to Andover
and Central twice each and also to NH power Pinkerton. They have a legit
6’2 kid in Tess Cigliano and are very well coached. They also have a
great winning tradition the last 10 years or so…hmmm.
Summary -- In the early
games I like Somerville in a real close one over L-S, Peabody by 19 over
Everett…Revere by 1 over Lowell with a big home crowd the deciding
factor…Westford big over Cambridge…Acton by 8 over Woburn…Andover in a high
scoring win by an 86 to 60 count over Methuen…and Lynn English over Masco by
14. The next round I like Central Catholic and Peabody to both win by
like 13 to get to one side of the semis. Westford has beaten AB twice
already and though it’s hard to beat a club 3 times in one year, I think
Westford will do it. They have too much respect for what AB’s Elizabeth
Belanger can do so they’ll be ready. Andover and LE play similar styles
defensively as they really attack you. The Golden Warriors just shoot
much better than LE so they win by like 15. In the semis look for
Central to beat Peabody
but in a very, very close game…say by 5. Peabody plays a lot of 1-2-2 zone and I think
that will pose problems for Central as their outside shooting is only
fair. It could also take Katie Z away from the hoop to help with the long
range game. Andover
beat Westford pretty good last year so that bad memory might still be haunting
the Grey Ghosts. Westford is such a mature team now with 9 seniors so
that may not come into play this year. Andover will prevail in a solid game say by a
63 to 54 count. In the finals I think this way…Andover beat Central good
in Methuen, a neutral court…Andover lost by 2 on Central’s court…Andover won by
6 at home. This game will be on a neutral court so I like Andover in a real close
one. In the Garden the lack of a shooting background may really hurt Andover though.
They live by the “3” and could die by it.
Division 2 North
Final Four – Melrose vs. Wilmington and Reading vs. Arlington
Catholic
Semifinals – Melrose vs. Arlington
Catholic
Winner – Arlington Catholic
Possible Surprise Team – Tewksbury plays in the
tough MVC and has a bonafide star in Danielle DePierro who is a 1,000 point
scorer and also their point guard. She can go for 30 while also dishing
off for another 5 or 6 hoops and thus can single handedly carry her club.
Winchester is another club with 2 really good
players in Santini and Mangano and they beat Melrose
recently so if they do get by Wilmington
it wouldn’t surprise me to see them get some serious momentum on their
side. They may be a year away from peaking though.
Summary – Tewksbury
lost to Dracut earlier but Tewksbury
ended the season winning 10 of 12 plus they have DePierro and are at home…Tewksbury by 5. Melrose has 9 seniors and should beat Tewksbury by like 10. Latin Academy
gave New Mission a good go losing by 4 so they should handle Brighton
by a good margin. Wilmington won 10 of
their last 13 once they got the rotation figured out so I like them to barely
edge out Winchester.
Winchester
has the 2 stars and both clubs are well coached. Winchester
is at home but I like senior Amy Fahey to be the difference here as Wilmington moves on in a
really close one. Melrose will then beat Wilmington in another
close one to get to the finals…say by 8. On the other side Danvers has some good young talent and beat Classical on
the road earlier and now they get them at home…so Danvers by 20. Reading
then gets by Danvers
by 9 at home. Gloucester without Hannah
Cain is not the same so North Andover beats
them in a low scoring affair. AC has 2 super seniors and plays excellent
defense so they end North Andover’s season
winning by 18…52 to 34. Cougars have the bad memory of losing last week
to Reading and
the Rockets are a young crew so I like AC to prevail by like 11. Melrose likes the half
court game and doesn’t shoot the “3” really well. AC likes a fast pace
and will jump out early forcing Melrose
to come from behind. Melrose
won’t be able to adjust and their style is not conducive to coming from
behind. AC just seems to have been playing better than Melrose
this year so the Cougars get to the state semis again this winter by beating Melrose by like 49 to
39. It probably ends for the Cougars though as Oliver Ames I think wins
the South and is my pick to go all the way and win the D2 states.
Division 3 North
Final Four – Pentucket vs.
St. Mary’s and Bishop Fenwick vs. Stoneham
Semifinals – Pentucket vs.
Bishop Fenwick
Winner – Pentucket
Possible Surprise Team – I
think one team here and that’s Fenwick, the 7th seed. They
have the “triplets” like that old Arkansas
club many years back in Pelletier (luv her game) Trainor and Southern.
They play in a tough league so they have no fear here. The only thing is
their defense or lack thereof. That will be the key when they play Stoneham.
Summary – Swampscott
finally has all their players back and healthy so I like them to get past Bedford on the road by
like 8. Swampscott then faces unbeaten Pentucket and their swarming
defense…I like the Sachems here by like 14. St. Mary’s needs to be ready
as this Weston club has won 7 in a row and 11 of 12. Tori Faieta and her
6’2 frame will be too much for Weston to handle though…St. Mary’s by 9.
Pentucket already beat St. Mary’s at a neutral site by 12 and I think the
spread will be roughly the same this time. On the other side Fenwick will
probably allow Watertown’s
Obi Tabot to score like 37 but will win 74 to 50. Fenwick then gets to
travel to that hostile Ipswich crowd but will
quiet them down in a good one by like 8. Stoneham
has that huge home crowd advantage so should beat North
Reading by close to 20. Coach Angela Billings’ troops are
relentless and will need to be playing Fenwick. The Spartans play with
lots of grit but Fenwick is on a roll and has great firepower and wins by 3 in
a doozy…say 59 to 56. Pentucket is too tough though and plays
championship caliber defense and Fenwick lacks that so Pentucket by a 54 to 45
count. In the state semifinals I think they face the Archies and Val
Driscoll. Pentucket scouts everybody ALL the time so will have some
gimmick adjustment to defend Driscoll so the Sachems win that one and get to
head to Worcester with a chance to win it all…and I think they might just do
that…I like Lee coming out of the West as their opponent…Lee has a long
tradition of winning so this will be tough.
Division 4 North
Final Four – New Mission vs. Whittier Tech.
and Manchester Essex vs. Lowell Catholic
Semifinals – Manchester Essex vs. New Mission
Winner – New Mission
Possible Surprise Team – I
apologize here but I just don’t see much of D4. I am a Lizzy Ball fan and
her Manchester Essex club played a really tough schedule which bodes well come
tourney time. They are well coached and I look for them to play way
better than their 8 and 12 record.
Summary – In the early
games I like Matignon, Manchester Essex and Georgetown. Then look for Whittier
Tech., Mt. St. Joe’s, New Mission and
Fenway to move on. On the other side I like Manchester to upset Pope John, Minuteman,
Lowell Catholic and St. Clements to move on. I then like New Mission to
down Fenway and Whittier to win with Manchester Essex downing Minuteman
while Lowell Catholic downs St. Clements big. New Mission
is just too good for Whittier
while Manchester Essex continues to surprise. New Mission gets the nod to win the North here as
Nyiesha Kelly is a talented and mature senior leader ending Manchester Essex’s
surprise run. The dream ends for New Mission however as Cohasset has all
the pieces and wins the D4 state title.
Division 1 South
Final Four – Wellesley vs.
Brockton and Newton
North vs. New Bedford
Semifinals – Wellesley vs. New
Bedford
Winner – Wellelsey
Possible Surprise Team – I
honestly don’t think there are any in this group…all these clubs are
solid. You might say Wellesley
will surprise if they do as I think and win the South in their 1st
year in D1. Yea…that will surprise many…hmmm.…
Summary – Tons of teams
here but in the early games I see Franklin beating B-R, North Attleboro moving
on with Mansfield getting by a young Taunton team, Brook Farm to win, Braintree
stopping Dartmouth, and Brookline beating Quincy. Then the fun starts…I
like Wellesley to beat Brookline by like 18…a hot Needham team with strong
seniors to surprise Newton South by a 50 to 45 count…Marshfield to get past
Brook Farm by a bunch…Brockton shines this time of year and knocks off
Mansfield by 12…New Bedford outlast North Attleboro by 8…Durfee to handle Tracy
Irvan and Plymouth South with W-H downing Braintree in a close one…and Newton
North is too hot right now for Franklin. Now we get serious as New
Bedford is ready for Durfee and handles them by 12…Newton North ends W-H’s
season with a 10 point win…Brockton is too quick for the Marshfield Rams and
moves on with a 17 point win…and Wellesley’s tight team defense quiets a hot
Needham club for the 2nd time this year in a close one winning 49 to
44. New Bedford
had a mini slump to end the regular season but they are back and their
quickness and experience is a little too much for a junior laden Newton North
as the Whalers win 59 to 52. Wellesley’s
team defense and discipline versus the chaotic pressure of Brockton is a fascinating matchup. I
recall Wellesley winning the D2 state title 2 years ago…that experience pays
dividends here as the edge the Boxers 59 to 57 in a beauty of a game.
Maybe this is me wanting my wish to come true and seeing Andover
play Wellesley but I do like Wellesley
to come away with a championship win over New
Bedford also. This crew knows how to win, has
terrific guards and is extremely well coached. Can they beat Andover??? Let’s
say they depend less on the “3” ball so the lack of a shooting background at
the Garden won’t impact them as much as it will Andover…hmmm.
Division 2 South
Final Four – Oliver Ames
vs. Foxboro and Fontbonne vs. Scituate
Semifinals – Oliver Ames
vs. Fontbonne
Winner – Oliver Ames
Possible Surprise Team – Sharon
has played well losing a lot of close games this year in the rugged Hockomock
League. This could bode well in the state tourney. I look for them
to give Fontbonne all they can handle in the early round…I think Fontbonne
survives but boy they need to be ready.
Summary – Walpole downs
Holliston by 14 and Natick knocks off Nauset on the road. I then like
Fontbonne to bop Natick pretty good and Sharon to knock off Feehan in a good
one by 5. Hingham has some good wins this year so I look for an upset
over Medfield here by 4. Scituate is young but they stop a tough Norwood
crew. On the other side I like OA to be really ready for an upstart
Walpole team and win at home by 11. Silver Lake outlasts Hopkinton on the
road by 4…a hot Foxboro club zaps Duxbury by over 20…D-R downs O’Bryant fairly
easily. Now we get interesting…Fontbonne barely survives a stubborn
Sharon team in OT by 5…Scituate downed Hingham 2x already so I look for a 3rd
win for Scituate by 13…Foxboro beats D-R big…while OA is 15 better than Silver
Lake…and Fontbonne with Alexis Peters doing it all and beating Scituate…Oliver
Ames was one of my favorites from the start and I’m not dropping them here…they
know how good Foxboro is and with “LB” starring they get by their Hock rival by
8 setting up the two top seeds in the dream final…again I love OA this year and
they outlast the Ducks by 8 making lots of free throws down the stretch.
I really think OA wins the D2 state title this year but Palmer in WMass is 20
and 0 so far…hmmm.
Division 3 South
Final Four – Bourne vs.
Cardinal Spellman and Carver vs. Archbishop Williams
Semifinals – Cardinal
Spellman vs. Archbishop Williams
Winner – Cardinal Spellman
Possible Surprise Team – Rockland
I think can upset Old Rochester so that will be a surprise and maybe Westwood
getting to the finals might surprise some out there but they are a good club
with excellent guards so that’s why I like them.
Summary – One bracket is
on “overload” with Coyle, the Archies, Spellman, Hanover Carver and more…Coyle
gets by Dedham easy while Hanover uses the home court to edge Carver by 3...the
Archies blast Ursuline and Spellman survives a scare from a tough Abington by
5…I like Burke to down Canton in a good one and Ashland to stop Fairhaven in
their tracks…then Rockland upsets Old Rochester by 2 and Westwood gets a solid
12 point win over Wareham…Coyle is too good for Hanover winning by 9 while the
Archies edge Spellman by 3…I look for Ashland to have too much balance for
Burke and Westwood to down upstart Rockland in a close one. Westwood then
downs TVL rival Ashland in a payback game to get to the finals against the
Archies as Val driscoll is just too big for Coyle’s kids to stop. The Archies
just know how to win and when you have Val Driscoll that’s a huge plus on your
side of the ledger. I do look for Pentucket to end Val’s career with a
loss however as Pentucket has those 3 solid seniors who also know how to win.
Division 4 South
Final Four – Cohasset vs.
Hull and South Shore Christian vs. Nantucket
Semifinals – Cohasset vs.
Nantucket
Winner – Cohasset
Possible Surprise Team –
The big surprise here will only be if Cohasset does not win this and the state
title. I do like the Hull club as they have the top notch point guard in
Ashleigh Condon and the big kid in Julie Manning that might neutralize Tori
Lehr so keep them in your sights.
Summary – Cohasset gets
rolling with win over Harwich…Avon knocks off W. Bridgewater…Blue Hills also
wins and Hull survives a tough battle with rugged Millis crew in a great
game…South Shore Christian and Norfolk Aggie roll with Nantucket and Westport
also moving to the next round. Cohasset stops Avon while Hull is psyched
now after opening win and rolls over Blue Hills and on the other side South
Shore and Nantucket keep it going. I love Cohasset as they beat Hull
twice by double digits and win this one by 9. Nantucket drops South Shore
to get to the finals but Cohasset is just too much for any D4 team. Cohasset
then beats New Mission in the state finals by 11.